This folder contains replication data and scripts. The following files are in this folder. polls_nl_1998_2021.xlsx Excel file with polling results 1998-2021. meso_gam_model.R R script that runs the GAM analysis. meso_var.R R script that runs the VAR model. EHA 2006 2010.do Stata script that runs the EHA model, given time allocation EHA 2010 2012.do Stata script that runs the EHA model, given time allocation