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ARNOUD W. A. BOOT
University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
TODD T. MILBOURN
Washington University, St. Louis - John M. Olin School of Business
ANJAN V. THAKOR
Washington University, St. Louis - John M. Olin School of Business
June 1998
London Business School WP No. LBS-IFA 275-1998
Abstract:
This paper provides an explanation for the urge of banks to merge and expand scope. We build a model where bank activities evolve over time. Due to deregulation and technological advances, new opportunities become available, but the skill needed to exploit them effectively may be unknown. Early entry into these scope-expanding activities may have learning benefits that are manifested in discovery of the skill needed to operate effectively. This discovery permits more efficient production decisions and thus has value that is increasing in the strategic uncertainty about future skill that exists in the scope-expanding activity.
Scope expansion, however, may not always be optimal. The reason is that scope expansion requires irreversible investments before actual demand is known. This demand uncertainty means that losses are incurred when demand does not materialize and the irreversible investment is forsaken. To offset these losses, two conditions must be met. First, sufficiently high strategic uncertainty about future skills is necessary. Second, the existing commercial banking operations must be sufficiently profitable to give the bank the necessary "deep pockets" to absorb these losses. The latter suggests that banking may not be too competitive and could point to a benefit of merging insofar as mergers reduce competition and deepen the banks' pockets. Moreover, a merged entity may acquire the necessary skill for the future opportunity with higher probability than either of the merging partners on their own. This may elevate the benefits of merging further.
JEL Classifications: G21, G24, G31, G34
Working Paper Series
Abstract has been viewed 2694 times
Contact Information for TODD T. MILBOURN (Contact Author)
Email address for TODD T. MILBOURN
Washington University, St. Louis - John M. Olin School of Business
One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis , MO 63130-4899
United States
314-935-6392 (Phone)
314-935-6359 (Fax)
Contact Information for ARNOUD W. A. BOOT
Email address for ARNOUD W. A. BOOT
University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics
Finance and Organization Finance Group
Roetersstraat 18
Amsterdam 1018 WB
Netherlands
+31 20 525 4256 (Phone)
+31 20 525 5285 (Fax)
(No e-mail address available for ARNOUD W. A. BOOT
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
90-98 Goswell Road
London EC1V 7RR
United Kingdom
Contact Information for ANJAN V. THAKOR
Email address for ANJAN V. THAKOR
Washington University, St. Louis - John M. Olin School of Business
One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis , MO 63130-4899
United States
Suggested Citation
Boot, Arnoud W.A., Milbourn, Todd Thomas and Thakor, Anjan V., "Expansion of Banking Scale and Scope: Don't Banks Know the Value of Focus?" (June 1998). London Business School WP No. LBS-IFA 275-1998. http://ssrn.com/abstract=103129
Contact Samantha Keenan, Mailto:[email protected] Postal: Institute of Finance and Accounting, London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA. Phone:00 44 (0)20 7262 5050 x3400. Fax:00 44 (0) 20 7724 3317.
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